How Long Will the Shale Revolution Last?: Technology versus Geology and the Lifecycle of Shale Plays

Did you know that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) were forced to downgrade their estimates by 96%? The EIA has a track-record of over-estimating production – which, as you can imagine has a significant impact on policymakers.

The rosy cheerleaders of the “shale revolution” are increasingly looking at a scoreboard that says the jobs, benefits, and recoverable gas will not pan out as they predicted.

U.S. shale oil and gas production has reached record highs only as a result of high rates of drilling and more aggressive technologies including longer horizontal laterals and massive injection volumes of water and proppant.

The Post Carbon Institute and Halt the Harm Network are hosting a webinar to help bring you solid economic and energy assessment expertise to your organizing, media and campaign efforts. Through this unique partnership, Halt the Harm Network leaders will be able to join a special online briefing with earth scientist and energy expert David Hughes, Post Carbon Institute fellow and author of the report How Long Will the Shale Revolution Last?: Technology versus Geology and the Lifecycle of Shale Plays. with provided by Post Carbon Institute.

The briefing will cover the key takeaways in the Post Carbon Institute new report and their analysis of the EIA Annual Energy Outlook Report.

  • This report represents 93% of U.S. shale gas and tight oil production.
  • Report covers type of energy produced, production and injection volumes per foot of horizontal lateral, and length of laterals.
  • Report covers production trends, drilling rates, and remaining drilling locations.
  • Environmental impacts are assessed in terms of the rate of well drilling and the water and proppant volumes required for each well, along with collateral impacts.

If your local opposition, fights your efforts to protect public health, the environment, and conservation efforts based on the dreams of big gas, job projections, and big profits, this information and services briefing is important for you.

What you’ll get from this webinar presentation:

  • An understanding of how fracking technology has evolved over the past several years in terms horizontal lateral lengths, injection volumes of water and proppant, and their effect on well productivity.
  • An appreciation of the geological variability of shale plays and its effect on future well productivity and production.
  • An understanding of the likely evolution of shale plays in terms of cost and production in contrast to rosy projections from the EIA and industry.

About the presenter :

David Hughes is an earth scientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for four decades, including 32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. Hughes has researched, published and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally.

His work with Post Carbon Institute includes a series of papers (2011) on the challenges of natural gas being a “bridge fuel” from coal to renewables; Drill, Baby, Drill (2013), which took a far-ranging look at the prospects for various unconventional fuels in the United States; Drilling California (2013), which critically examined the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) estimates of technically recoverable tight oil in the Monterey Shale, which the EIA claimed constituted two-thirds of U.S. tight oil (the EIA subsequently wrote down its resource estimate for the Monterey by 96%); Drilling Deeper (2014), which challenged the U.S. Department of Energy’s expectation of long-term domestic oil and natural gas abundance with an in-depth assessment of all drilling and production data from the major shale plays through mid-2014; and Shale Reality Check: Drilling Into the U.S. Government’s Rosy Projections for Shale Gas & Tight Oil Production Through 2050 (in 2018).

Separately from Post Carbon, Hughes authored A Clear View of BC LNG in 2015, which examined the issues surrounding a proposed massive scale-up of shale gas production in British Columbia for LNG export, Can Canada increase oil and gas production, build pipelines and meet its climate commitments? in 2016, which examined the issues surrounding climate change and new export pipelines, and Canada’s Energy Outlook: Current realities and implications for a carbon-constrained future in 2018.

About these webinars:

This upcoming webinar with Post Carbon is part of the Halt the Harm webinar series in which members of the network share what they’ve been working on to support the broader movement. These programs are focused on tangible skills or information that you can use to be more effective in your campaigns protecting yourself from the oil & gas industry.

If you have a presentation, campaign, skill, or tool to share with the network, please contact to start the conversation.

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